Sixers 2019 Draft Discussion with The Stepien’s Ross Homan: Round 1

The Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors are amidst a Finals duel while 28 other organizations fixate on the upcoming 2019 NBA Draft. Teams are getting close-up evaluations of prospective draft picks weeks leading up to June 20. Philadelphia holds five draft picks in total, while their first selection comes at pick 24.

Last year, Philadelphia aced their draft and equipped themselves to land a star in Tobias Harris. With Elton Brand overseeing his first draft as Sixers general manager, he hopes to duplicate positive results. With Jonah Bolden and Zhaire Smith strapped to the sidelines due to inexperience plus Philadelphia’s bench rendered to just James Ennis providing consistent production, the Sixers could use another extra-base hit on one of their first-round picks.

With potential of pick 24 translating into a year 1 role player, The Stepien’s Ross Homan was kind enough to help break down the possibilities and provide his thoughts. Ross will provide insight on round 2 in a future Q&A. You can follow Ross at @Ross_homan1, and read his work here.

Jake Hyman: Hi, Ross! Thank you for taking the time to answer some Sixers and draft-related questions today. How are things going and how’s the evaluation process?

Ross Homan: Things are going well, just excited to get past the lottery and combine with only a few weeks until draft night. I waited until after college ball to go through the internationals and I’m finally caught up with that, so I’m starting to dig into my final board. Also working on a final draft project over at The Stepien which I’m really excited for.

JH: Consensus seems to be high on the upperclassmen in this draft. A guy like Sekou Doumbouya won’t turn 19 until December while Brandon Clarke will turn 23 in September. How much factor does age and development play into your board?

RH: Age is definitely a very important factor, but the learning curve can be estimated when factoring in other things. For example, if I feel a guy doesn’t have great feel/instincts or high IQ on the floor, the natural learning curve that their age brings lessens a little bit for me. That and athleticism are two really important things for me when I’m trying to figure out what I think somebody’s realistic ceiling is. Also, I think there are outlier improvement areas for certain guys that are a little older. Clarke took a very large step in the year he sat after transferring from San Jose State, and he’s somebody I feel has a little more upside than your typical soon to be 23 year old because of the jumper improvement, natural touch, and IQ/athleticism combination. I try to go for upside as much as possible, for obvious reasons. Weighing the risk and reward of some prospects that have high ceilings and a low floor isn’t an easy thing to do, so I try to stick with my beliefs as much as possible with those cases. Motor is another pretty important factor I try to evaluate when deciding between older and younger guys. But yes, there is definitely a natural step forward in athleticism and ability when you’re going from 19 years old to 23 years old, so age is easily one of the more important factors in prospects. You just have to try and balance it with the other positives and negatives that player brings.

JH: Tracing back to last year’s draft, Philadelphia uncovered a gem in Landry Shamet who they parlayed into a star. Shamet and JJ Redick were problems for defenses in floppy sets. Who are some of the draft’s premier shooters off the catch?

RH: The main guys that come to mind who could be in Philadelphia’s first round range are Cam Johnson, Carsen Edwards and Tyler Herro. Johnson the best current shooter of the group, but also the oldest. Edwards 3pt percentages took a dip this year, but he was tasked with carrying an offense who didn’t have creators outside of him. His FT% and past 3pt years are good indicators he is a very good shooter. Herro is an interesting case because of his shot distribution. One of the best shooters in the NCAA off the dribble(a lot of one dribble pull-ups) while struggling a bit as a shooter off the catch. My guess with that is he has been a lead ball handler throughout his high school and AAU years, so he was always creating for himself. I have no doubt he’d learn to be a really good catch and shoot guy, but I do have a little concern about his range. Should improve with strength, but clearly wasn’t comfortable shooting the ball from NBA range(32% on over 100 attempts). Edwards is also somebody who I could see slipping to Philly’s 33rd and 34th picks. He along with Dylan Windler and Zach Norvell Jr. are the guys in their early second-round range as great shooters. Windler was at 43% on the year but is strictly a catch and shoot guy, which isn’t bad. His size helps him shoot over the top easier than Norvell, and especially Edwards. Norvell has some shot selection issues, that may have been due to his role at Gonzaga, but is still a very good overall shooter.

JH: Two-part question. Again revisiting the 2018 draft, it seemed as if Philadelphia filled needs which Boston exposed in last year’s playoffs: two-way wings, shot creators. How influential do you think the Raptors series is for their front office? The team was understandably MIA (missing in action) during last July and will be ever-present this upcoming offseason. Is there any realm of possibility they choose to delay paying their first-round pick and draft-and-stash?

RH: I think the only real concern to come away with from the Toronto series was some bench issues, mainly at the center spot. Looking like they’ll lose Ennis, who provided some good games could also be an issue. It seems as if they have no problem shelling out some cash to keep the best possible team, the way they have been talking, but no guarantee. It doesn’t look like there are real options at #24 for draft-and-stash, unless they’re willing to reach on somebody. But Yovel Zoosman would be a prime candidate with one of their second-round picks. A really good Israeli forward who is still under contract with Maccabi Tel Aviv, Zoosman could probably be stashed for a year and then come over for the 2020/21 season. Would be a steal of a pick if he falls to their 42nd pick. Deividas Sirvydis and Arturs Zagars are also two guys I’d be very willing to draft at pick 42 or 54 to stash.

JH: Could they select a player and then reroute him to a rebuilding team for a role player with a proven track record? Who’d be of interest in your view?

RH: So this is all dependent on what they do with their long list of summer free agents, more specifically if they bring back Butler and Harris on max deals, but E’Twaun Moore has long been a favorite target of mine for the Sixers. If the Pelicans trade Anthony Davis around draft night, there is potential for a fire sale and full rebuild. Moore is a perfect fit in Philly while only having one contract year left at $8.6 million.

JH: Carsen Edwards is the off-the-dribble three-point extraordinaire. At just 6’0” and little margin for error in terms of getting quality shots off, how effective will he be as a microwave scorer?

RH: I’ve become a little more open to the idea of Carsen Edwards over the last few weeks and wouldn’t mind Philly spending one of their early second-round picks on him. His self-creation ability will definitely be an issue, but he should be able to get shots off playing with Simmons and Embiid(plus maybe Butler/Harris). He has the ability to shoot off movement and has close to unlimited range, while also being a solid screen-setter and very willing off-ball mover. As somebody who is a bit lower on him than consensus, Philly is definitely one of the teams I wouldn’t mind picking him earlier than where I have him ranked.

JH: Sixers faithful is rightfully smitten with Washington’s Matisse Thybulle. With him departing from the Combine, where does Philadelphia stand in terms of likelihood he’s available?

RH: I’m actually beginning to wonder if he’ll be available at 24, with him skipping out on the combine. I think it’s a possibility that OKC, knowing Presti and who he likes, might have their eyes on him as the Roberson replacement and starting wing alongside Paul George. He checks all the boxes that the Thunder normally look for in prospects, and they’ll likely go with an older, more “pro-ready” player. But if he slides past OKC and reaches Philly at 24, I’d have to imagine they’ll think long and hard about drafting him, knowing he helps cover up some of their biggest team weaknesses.

JH: Just from an outsider’s perspective, how entertaining of a second unit wing duo would Thybulle and Zhaire Smith make?

RH: Very, very entertaining. They’re as good as you can find at their size when it comes to off-ball defenders and they both love to run in transition. Small-ball line-ups with Simmons on grab and go duty, while those two run lanes in transition would be extremely fun to watch.

JH: An early report surfaced with UNC’s Cameron Johnson as a potential first-round target. Doesn’t his game overlap with Mike Scott or is he able to self-create?

RH: Another player I’m a little lower on than consensus, I do think there is some truth that offensively he has some overlap with Scott, but Johnson is a better shooter and more of a perimeter guy, despite not having self-creation ability. He also doesn’t play anywhere near his actual size, which is a problem. Much more of a perimeter defender, although some consider small-ball 4 capable(which I disagree with), Johnson doesn’t have the strength to guard interior guys. That lack of strength also factors in to his offensive game, where combined with lack of handle, he can’t do a ton offensively beside shoot. He is somebody I’m just not comfortable with in the 24 range due to lack of upside. I think we’ve also seen only shooting capable guys struggle when the playoffs come around and they’re ran off the line and forced to create.

JH: You touched on Herro’s creation possibly stemming from pre-Kentucky. Could you see him thriving in a playoff setting and could Philadelphia be patient enough to see out his development while enduring his early bumps?

RH: I think drafting strictly shooters can be a problem for teams, and we see it when those shooters are run off the line and unable to do anything after. You have to be an elite level shooter(Korver/Redick) to be somebody who is a non-athlete and flawed in other offensive areas, and betting on historic shooting is risky when drafting. I don’t think Herro will be a historic shooter, but I do think he will be a very good one. What I do like about Herro is he has some equity as a secondary playmaker. A VERY small sample size, but with around 25 PnR ball handler opportunities this year, Herro ranked in the 92nd percentile. A 1.5 A/TO ratio, he has a very good pull-up game that will help when he likely struggles finishing around the rim with the short arms and lack of explosion. Basically he is somebody that you’re totally fine with getting ran off the 3point line and having advantage situations. I think there will definitely be some growing pains, but that almost always is a certainty with rookies, regardless of age. However, he has a solid IQ and feel to the game, and really takes pride in competing on the defensive end, which will help him year one. Philly is contending, so they’re definitely in a different spot than some teams, but I do think Herro will be just as effective in year 1 as some of the upperclassmen, while also having a lot more upside. The one thing I worry about Herro is the range on his shooting wasn’t great and he needed forward momentum for a lot of shots, but that’s something you hope improves with body maturity and strength.

JH: From a talent standpoint, where does he stand alongside last year’s floor spacing wings?

RH: I think he’s close to the middle out of the first round guys from last year. I’d consider him a worse prospect than Shamet and Huerter, but better than Grayson Allen or Donte Divencenzo.

JH: Are there any point guards worth taking at 24 or is the gulf from White or Garland too steep?

RH: There’s a pretty large gap between Garland and my PG 4, so I don’t think there will be any good choices at 24. However, they could get some immediate contributors with their second-round picks. Even though it drops off after Garland, the four through 10ish point guards are pretty comparable in my eyes which should lead to good value if they decide to draft one in round two. Justin Robinson, Cody Martin and Devon Dotson are guys I’d look to strongly target with their 42nd and 56th pick. Even a guy like Barry Brown Jr, who’s arguably the best guard defender in the class could be worth a look on a two-way.

JH: How are injury red-flagged prospects viewed as the team’s Finals urgency increases?

RH: I think it depends on the severity and how old your core pieces are. Like Jontay Porter coming off two ACL tears would be a risk for a team like Philly, who lacks depth and is a legitimate contender. But somebody like Chuma Okeke who could be back around all-star break would be worth a pick. If it’s somebody who has a relatively clean injury history, and is just coming off a bad luck injury, they can be worth a pick even if missing some of the rookie season. On the other hand, guys with actual injury history should probably be more avoided on teams that are pushing all of their chips in over the next couple of years.

JH: Given Mikal Bridges, Zhaire Smith and Landry Shamet worked out for Philadelphia last year, how much stock do you put in pre-draft workouts?

RH: It can definitely show what teams are into what prospects, but I don’t pay a ton of attention to it, since I don’t follow specific teams. I think seeing these guys workout in front of you is definitely important though. Especially being able to talk to the prospects face to face. All factors of scouting matter, even if watching games is the most important, it doesn’t mean you should do anything less than gather all possible information, which includes watching single workouts.

JH: It seemed as if Shamet, Bolden and Smith progressed in the shooting department from when they debuted to the final regular season game. Do you think Elton Brand can mold a defensive-first prospect who’d present value at 24 into a non-liability? Who are some prospects who’d fit that mold.

RH: I was near the top of the list when it came to people who most believed in Zhaire’s shooting ability, and I thought Shamet was an elite shooter, so I’d still be skeptical taking non-shooters at #24, but the Sixers desperately need a guard defender. Thybulle is really the only guy in that range that can be classified as a defensive first project with offensive question marks, but I do think he’s a real possibility to land there.

JH: Talen Horton-Tucker has some wonky measurables for a wing at 6’4” and 235 pounds with a 7’1” wingpsan. How would you prep him to maximize his talents and where do they lie on both ends of the floor?

RH: So I definitely think Horton-Tucker will have to lose 10 or 15 pounds to be at the level of fitness you’d prefer, but he is one of the youngest players in the draft so some of it is natural body maturing. His current body and age give him some athletic upside, which is important. 8'7 standing reach along with his strength is solid enough to play some 3 and small-ball 4, so I think the best way to use him is just be versatile. He needs to improve his off-ball defense, which is where somebody with his measurements should really thrive, and his offensive decision making will need to improve, but you expect somebody at his age to have some poor decision making. Ultimately, I think he has the chance to be a guy that can create for himself, and others on the offensive end while being able to use his strength and long arms to finish around the rim better than most his height, and be a disruptor off-ball on the defensive end who can help with some occasional weak-side rim protection, jumping passing lanes, and guarding up a position or two because of the strength and standing reach combination.

JH: You touched on Horton-Tucker’s versatility. Can the Sixers possibly use him as a creator with perhaps a Butler when they turn to their bench and stagger players?

RH: He can definitely be a secondary creator and should continue to improve in that aspect of his game. His decision making needs to progress, but he has natural passing talent and a good handle for his size and age. The off-ball offense will need improvement, and his shooting is a definite swing skill, but I would be happy with him as an off the bench shot creator alongside somebody like Butler, or even Simmons.

JH: Luguentz Dort looks the part of an energy type off the bench. How high are you on his skills translating as he brings a 6’8 1/2” wingspan to the guard position.

RH: I think he could very well be one of the better on-ball defenders in the class, but I’m pretty worried about his off-ball defense and his offense as a whole. A poor decision maker who doesn’t have very much shooting upside, in my opinion. He gets to the rim a lot, but doesn’t finish well and seems to be lacking natural touch, which limits his 3pt shooting capabilities. Dort is somebody I don’t have in my personal top 45.

JH: Grant Williams is another prospect who’ll likely be undersized at his position (PF). His pick-and-roll ability operating from the handler to the roller, his passing value, spacing and his mentality paint part of the vibrant picture. Who fits best with him currently on the Sixers’ roster? Is he one of the few options at 24 who could blossom into a starter?

RH: I would love Grant Williams at #24 and definitely think he has an avenue to being their starting PF, depending on what happens with Tobias Harris. Grant is something that has the skillset to play the 4 next to Embiid, but also would be a really good small-ball 5 when they go to the bench unit with Simmons. In the starting lineup, he would bring high IQ team defense, really good ball movement and likely floor spacing, as I trust the jumper to extend to 3pt range with no trouble. As somebody with the bench unit, he can play small-ball 5 with Simmons or Butler, help run the offense and be relied on to secondary create and score.

JH: Who’d you take as Elton Brand between Thybulle and Grant?

RH: I would easily go Grant over Thybulle, despite the argument Sixers need perimeter defense. Grant is someone I have top 10 on my board, so being able to get him at 24 would be a steal. He solidifies their frontcourt and gives them a backup big they desperately needed in the playoffs.

JH: In your view, how would the board have to play out for Elton Brand to tab Chuma Okeke his first pick? You told me that Okeke and Philadelphia would be a perfect pairing. How do you see him being integrated into Brett Brown’s rotation coming off an ACL injury?

RH: Grant and Okeke are very close to each other for my top realistic option at #24. In my opinion, I wouldn’t risk Okeke being drafted between 25–32, and I’d take him at 24. A lot of similarities with Covington, Okeke in terms of talent AND fit is perfect for Philly. I’d imagine Brown eases him into the rotation when he’s healthy, and probably gives him some G League games. A bit easier of an injury to come back from nowadays, I could see Okeke breaking the rotation and getting playoff minutes year 1. I could also see a path to him starting by year 2, depending on the Tobias and Butler signings. Again, he’s extremely good and a perfect fit with Simmons and Embiid.

JH: Who’d be your ideal pick at 24?

RH: I’d have to go with Chuma Okeke being the best possible option. Coming off an ACL injury so there’s definitely some risk to it, but I have Okeke as a lottery talent and he fits some things that Philadelphia needs, assuming only one of Butler/Tobias return. Okeke is one of the better off-ball defenders in the class due to his superb basketball IQ, while also being good on-ball. He’s even became a little underrated as a shooter, in my opinion. He shot 39% from 3 on 226 attempts in two years, and has some upside as a slight off-movement shooter. He’s also an exceptional passer and could easily fit next to all of Philly’s important core. Thinking about Simmons, Zhaire, Butler, Okeke and Embiid guard teams is extremely exciting.